BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

European Starling in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Piedmont is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Piedmont is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026260.5852
2027250.0050
2028230.0049
2029220.0048
2030210.0046

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording European Starling in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AkronPENNSYLVANIA4751997
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA3152000
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA2512025
EmmitsburgMARYLAND2472025
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA2251996
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA2212022
LabottPENNSYLVANIA2081983
IjamsvilleMARYLAND2022025
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA2001988
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA1941987
AspersPENNSYLVANIA1871989
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA1651977
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA1642025
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA1432024
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA1392025
Great FallsVIRGINIA1361978
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA1332025
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA1262025
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA1201976
OlneyMARYLAND1082025
AthensGEORGIA992025
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA991990
RandallstownMARYLAND972013
MadonnaMARYLAND952022
EarltonMARYLAND952024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.