BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

European Starling in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Piedmont is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Piedmont is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025271.152
2026250.0051
2027240.0050
2028230.0048
2029210.0047

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording European Starling in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA7292024
AkronPENNSYLVANIA4751997
EmmitsburgMARYLAND4262024
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA3152000
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA2251996
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA2212022
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA2132024
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA2092024
LabottPENNSYLVANIA2081983
OlneyMARYLAND2052024
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA2001988
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA1941987
AspersPENNSYLVANIA1871989
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA1651977
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA1612024
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA1432024
Bachman MillMARYLAND1412024
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA1402024
Great FallsVIRGINIA1361978
WarfieldsbrgMARYLAND1262024
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA1201976
IjamsvilleMARYLAND1072024
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA1042024
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA991990
RandallstownMARYLAND972013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.