BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 69 (95% range 40–99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
40–9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 69 (95% range 40–99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257242101
20267141100
20277041100
2028704099
2029694099

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TecumsehOHIO5161982
DunlapOHIO4701988
WilmingtonOHIO4071996
SextonINDIANA3692024
WayneILLINOIS3452024
Red RockIOWA3382024
DarrtownOHIO3332021
MaplewoodINDIANA3102021
HarveysburgOHIO2991996
CasstownOHIO2812024
W CarrolltonOHIO2752015
NewportOHIO2561994
DecaturINDIANA2412024
KokomoINDIANA2282024
KalidaOHIO2282019
GalvestonINDIANA2172024
FowlerINDIANA2162024
SwayzeeINDIANA2062023
JamestownILLINOIS2052024
TiptonINDIANA1991992
PeoriaOKLAHOMA1972023
PlainfieldINDIANA1931999
JamestownINDIANA1902024
GaryINDIANA1881999
KentonOHIO1882024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.