BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

European Starling in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 655% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+655%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 655% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 0.21–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.0 (95% range 0.21–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.055.7
20262.90.095.8
20273.00.135.8
20283.00.175.8
20293.00.215.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording European Starling in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS462024
LeanderTEXAS332006
GeorgetownTEXAS101979
PidcokeTEXAS92016
Dripping SpgTEXAS42017
Pidcoke 2TEXAS42024
FitzhughTEXAS31982
LeakeyTEXAS32023
HarperTEXAS22019
BoerneTEXAS12019
UtopiaTEXAS12024
Valley SpgsTEXAS12021
San SabaTEXAS12009
KempnerTEXAS12018
AdamsvilleTEXAS12018
MontellTEXAS12007
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.