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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

European Starling in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025157.822
2026157.822
2027157.822
2028157.722
2029157.722

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording European Starling in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LibertyNEBRASKA2572003
Beloit 2KANSAS1902018
StrattonNEBRASKA1682024
ArthurNEBRASKA1102024
WellingtonKANSAS942024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA812024
CashionOKLAHOMA812024
KearneyNEBRASKA802024
DaltonKANSAS662024
HolbrookNEBRASKA632024
SumnerNEBRASKA512024
Crescent LkNEBRASKA502010
KenesawNEBRASKA482024
ChambersNEBRASKA482023
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA362021
SutherlandNEBRASKA362024
ChapmanKANSAS331981
ElginOKLAHOMA332015
AshlandKANSAS312021
HollenbergKANSAS312023
TegardenOKLAHOMA312004
CovertKANSAS292024
Liberty 2NEBRASKA292007
ColonyOKLAHOMA291995
PetersburgNEBRASKA272023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.