BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

European Starling in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.01–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.01–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025131.224
2026120.9024
2027120.6023
2028120.3023
2029110.0123

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording European Starling in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarlemMONTANA2082021
PantherIOWA1322024
ChinookMONTANA1182024
ScrantonIOWA952024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA842024
Winside 2NEBRASKA672022
GarnerIOWA611993
OswegoMONTANA602009
LambertMONTANA542024
MccallsburgIOWA462024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA462024
ZearingIOWA451995
SpartaNEBRASKA442021
CourtlandMINNESOTA422024
TildenNEBRASKA372024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA352024
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA352023
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA311983
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA302012
FranklinMINNESOTA282024
ChandlerMINNESOTA272023
Great FallsMONTANA272024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA272023
ClareIOWA222019
GlasgowMONTANA222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.