BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

European Starling in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
178Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 3.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 3.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025153.227
2026153.127
2027153.127
2028153.027
2029153.027

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording European Starling in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CodyWYOMING3652024
LaurelMONTANA2142022
Clyde ParkMONTANA2102024
MeeteetseWYOMING1512024
Pablo Res.MONTANA1442024
ChewelahWASHINGTON1322021
PhilipsburgMONTANA1292024
EtheteWYOMING1212024
MidvaleWYOMING1152024
KalispellMONTANA1002024
Church HillMONTANA962024
WalcottWYOMING862024
FrannieWYOMING762024
Mtn ViewWYOMING712024
PolsonMONTANA682024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA672024
GlenMONTANA662024
TensleepWYOMING642024
BasinWYOMING612024
AugustaMONTANA572024
Threemile WaMONTANA552024
Willow CreekMONTANA531981
CascadeIDAHO511984
WorlandWYOMING502024
Green RiverWYOMING491984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.