BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±329.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±329.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±329.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.30
20260.000.000.30
20270.000.000.30
20280.000.000.30
20290.000.000.30

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE61991
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY52024
WalnutMARYLAND41999
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS41991
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY42000
HarmonyMARYLAND32004
FruitlandMARYLAND31997
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS31973
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY31984
ManorvilleNEW-YORK31983
TruhartVIRGINIA32023
FrankfordDELAWARE21972
Milton 2DELAWARE22017
CheltenhamMARYLAND22002
NortheastMARYLAND22009
MillingtonMARYLAND22005
MelitotaMARYLAND21981
EastonMARYLAND21982
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22024
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE22022
PomonaNEW-JERSEY22008
WinslowNEW-JERSEY22007
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND21989
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT11988
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.