BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.65
20260.180.000.63
20270.160.000.61
20280.140.000.59
20290.120.000.57

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZionARKANSAS32024
Ozark NfARKANSAS32024
BrazilINDIANA31989
KeysburgKENTUCKY31985
HudsonKENTUCKY31993
BoxvilleKENTUCKY31983
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY32009
AkersMISSOURI32024
ViburnumMISSOURI32016
Belotes BendTENNESSEE31992
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE32005
MarshallARKANSAS22013
BelknapILLINOIS21993
CumbackINDIANA21983
CantonKENTUCKY22023
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY21986
McbrayerKENTUCKY21992
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22008
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY21996
GatewoodKENTUCKY22002
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21992
CascadeMISSOURI22024
ClementineMISSOURI22002
HaydenMISSOURI22009
Cole CampMISSOURI21985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.