BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
366Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.004.4
20270.000.004.4
20280.000.004.4
20290.000.004.4
20300.000.004.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DearmanvilleALABAMA721983
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA672025
SummittALABAMA501981
DawsonALABAMA381998
Greasy RidgeOHIO341991
ClimerTENNESSEE282004
BrooksvilleALABAMA262025
LakeviewALABAMA252025
Coal RunOHIO251992
CumberlandOHIO222017
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE222011
NewbernVIRGINIA211982
IvanhoeVIRGINIA211968
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA202024
RectorPENNSYLVANIA191977
Mt StormWEST-VIRGINIA191975
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA181977
ClinchportVIRGINIA181978
TradeALABAMA172024
StonecreekOHIO172025
WallandTENNESSEE171989
Mt NeboMARYLAND161991
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE162023
SunnybrookKENTUCKY152022
KehoeKENTUCKY151992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.