BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.50.0015
20265.50.0014
20274.50.0013
20283.50.0012
20292.60.0011

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cole CampMISSOURI761990
PlumKENTUCKY742024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY731983
MillerMISSOURI522024
McbrayerKENTUCKY502024
West PlainsMISSOURI502024
ColcordOKLAHOMA442022
GoshenKENTUCKY381999
MillionKENTUCKY371986
CollinwoodTENNESSEE372024
HudsonKENTUCKY352024
Buena VistaKENTUCKY352017
CentertonARKANSAS332024
FarwellARKANSAS332018
Million 2KENTUCKY322024
PetersburgTENNESSEE312019
ZionARKANSAS302024
LincolnMISSOURI292024
GlenTENNESSEE292024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY281998
Bays ForkKENTUCKY282019
Levee 2KENTUCKY282019
Rueter 2MISSOURI282024
HandleyMISSOURI272023
Union HillTENNESSEE272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.