BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.84
20270.330.000.84
20280.340.000.84
20290.340.000.84
20300.340.000.84

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaNEBRASKA151998
PantherIOWA132025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA62025
WinsideNEBRASKA61983
BurchinalIOWA52025
GluekMINNESOTA51973
ClareIOWA32019
MccallsburgIOWA32025
ScrantonIOWA22025
HartlandMINNESOTA22017
MaynardMINNESOTA22000
OkleeMINNESOTA21984
Big StoneMINNESOTA21997
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA22002
WashingtonIOWA12025
KanawhaIOWA12025
ZearingIOWA11993
GarnerIOWA11993
TitonkaIOWA12025
HuntleyMINNESOTA12023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12014
CourtlandMINNESOTA12024
DawsonMINNESOTA12022
AppletonMINNESOTA12025
FranklinMINNESOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.