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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Downy Woodpecker in BCR 4 has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-18%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.54
20260.170.000.54
20270.170.000.54
20280.170.000.54
20290.160.000.54

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA62023
PetersvilleALASKA42022
Burma RoadALASKA42024
Kenny LakeALASKA31997
Manley Ht SpALASKA31999
RubyALASKA32021
Nicholai SlALASKA22024
Hather CreekALASKA22022
Porcupine R.ALASKA22000
EagleALASKA12017
CircleALASKA12012
Birch LakeALASKA12011
LivengoodALASKA12019
Tower BluffsALASKA12011
ChistochinaALASKA11998
Goose BayALASKA11982
Skilak LakeALASKA11983
KalifonskyALASKA12018
WillowALASKA12024
Chena RiverALASKA11988
L SalchaALASKA12013
Chena Hot SpALASKA11987
TonsinaALASKA12021
SavageALASKA12007
Hatcher PassALASKA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.