BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+318%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.1–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.1–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.95.7
20264.43.05.7
20274.43.05.8
20284.53.15.9
20294.53.15.9

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NobletonFLORIDA202024
CroomFLORIDA202024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA142024
Green SwampFLORIDA132024
Island GroveFLORIDA112024
CitrusFLORIDA102024
FlemingtonFLORIDA91999
GoetheFLORIDA92024
San AntonioFLORIDA82024
ChildsFLORIDA82022
Winter GardnFLORIDA82019
Mt. OliveFLORIDA82024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA82024
BelmoreFLORIDA72024
Mabel 2FLORIDA72019
Polk CityFLORIDA62024
MabelFLORIDA62011
KenansvilleFLORIDA62024
PinelandsFLORIDA62024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA62024
MicanopyFLORIDA51991
St AugustineFLORIDA52024
AlturasFLORIDA51986
CrewsvilleFLORIDA52024
Dale MabryFLORIDA41987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.