BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.4 (95% range 4.2–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.4 (95% range 4.2–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.24.16.3
20265.24.16.4
20275.34.26.4
20285.34.26.5
20295.44.26.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT202011
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT162024
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS162022
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS152022
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS152024
Island CreekMARYLAND142024
HongaMARYLAND132024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND132024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS132024
Jones BeachNEW-YORK132013
GreenwichCONNECTICUT122018
MadisonMARYLAND122024
Forest GroveMARYLAND122023
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS122024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY122013
MarionMASSACHUSETTS112024
Mt PleasantDELAWARE102019
BeltsvilleMARYLAND102012
CokesburyMARYLAND102024
BedfordNEW-YORK101996
BrandonVIRGINIA102024
Long HillCONNECTICUT92019
MillsboroDELAWARE92024
PepperboxDELAWARE92016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.