BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
402Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.12.43.8
20273.12.43.8
20283.12.43.8
20293.12.43.8
20303.12.43.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY182018
Tar HollowOHIO162024
TalladegaALABAMA122025
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY121995
SmithsburgMARYLAND122014
Mt HopeNEW-YORK122010
OmegaOHIO122024
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA122025
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA122025
KehoeKENTUCKY111992
RydePENNSYLVANIA112005
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA112025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA102024
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK102019
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA102025
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA102025
Mt OliveALABAMA92025
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY92024
DresdenOHIO92025
AdamsvilleOHIO91983
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA92025
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA92025
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA92025
PutnamVIRGINIA92025
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.