BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+167%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 2.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.72.03.4
20272.72.03.4
20282.72.03.4
20292.72.03.4
20302.82.13.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HartlandMICHIGAN112009
N FreedomWISCONSIN102025
GalesburgMICHIGAN92025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN92025
PrattvilleMICHIGAN82021
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA82025
NashvilleMICHIGAN72025
AlmenaMICHIGAN72015
OsseoMINNESOTA72024
CadottWISCONSIN72024
LakevilleINDIANA62024
LaporteINDIANA62023
BeldingMICHIGAN62003
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN62025
CohoctahMICHIGAN62025
LapeerMICHIGAN62025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN62012
GreshamWISCONSIN62025
FestinaIOWA52025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN52025
No BradleyMICHIGAN52025
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN52025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA52024
EsdaileWISCONSIN52015
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.