BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+194%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.8 (95% range 2.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.8 (95% range 2.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.72.03.4
20262.72.03.4
20272.72.03.4
20282.82.13.4
20292.82.13.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GalesburgMICHIGAN182024
No BradleyMICHIGAN132024
Belding 2MICHIGAN122024
CohoctahMICHIGAN112024
HartlandMICHIGAN112009
ParisWISCONSIN92024
PrattvilleMICHIGAN82021
LapeerMICHIGAN82024
NashvilleMICHIGAN72024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN72024
AlmenaMICHIGAN72015
OsseoMINNESOTA72024
CadottWISCONSIN72024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN72024
Omro 2WISCONSIN72024
MerideanWISCONSIN72024
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN72024
LakevilleINDIANA62024
LaporteINDIANA62023
BeldingMICHIGAN62003
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN62012
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN52024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA52024
EsdaileWISCONSIN52015
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.