BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.411.1
20260.770.411.1
20270.780.411.1
20280.780.411.1
20290.780.421.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VerdenOKLAHOMA82017
AlmeriaNEBRASKA62014
DaltonKANSAS52024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA52023
CashionOKLAHOMA52024
WellingtonKANSAS32024
ChapmanKANSAS31981
JewellKANSAS32005
MisslerKANSAS31985
Jewell 2KANSAS32021
BeloitKANSAS32001
BerwynNEBRASKA32010
ArapahoOKLAHOMA32013
HunterOKLAHOMA32024
ColonyOKLAHOMA31995
ColdwaterKANSAS22022
BuckeyeKANSAS22023
KanopolisKANSAS22023
HanoverKANSAS22021
HollenbergKANSAS22022
MinneapolisKANSAS22015
BerwetKANSAS22024
HodgesKANSAS22003
DamarKANSAS22002
KearneyNEBRASKA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.