BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.4
20261.91.32.4
20271.91.32.4
20281.91.32.4
20291.91.42.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS92016
Bowdoin CtrMAINE82021
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
TurnerMAINE62010
GreenvilleMAINE62022
Seboomook LkMAINE52014
BenedictaMAINE52022
NesowadnehunMAINE52021
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS52024
HancockMASSACHUSETTS52015
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
WestbrookMAINE42024
Carrying PlMAINE42024
CambridgeMAINE42013
WaiteMAINE41977
Baker Lake 2MAINE42011
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS42024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
SabattisNEW-YORK41983
HardwickVERMONT42024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT31987
HartfordMAINE32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.