BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Double-crested Cormorant In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-43%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Double-crested Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Double-crested Cormorant In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.30
20270.070.000.30
20280.070.000.30
20290.070.000.29
20300.070.000.29

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YoakumTEXAS42004
CayugaTEXAS32025
CampbelltonTEXAS22004
Massey LakeTEXAS22023
KosseTEXAS22016
FanninTEXAS22001
CreedmoreTEXAS22000
SchroederTEXAS11982
MuldoonTEXAS12003
Lone OakTEXAS12002
WeatherfordTEXAS12016
AlbanyTEXAS12022
Miller GroveTEXAS12010
SadlerTEXAS12014
HenriettaTEXAS12016
Thornton 2TEXAS12001
CarlosTEXAS12024
Blue RidgeTEXAS12000
Three RiversTEXAS12024
BonnerTEXAS12010
BrucevilleTEXAS12001
Gambill Ref.TEXAS12025
ComancheTEXAS12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.