BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cooper's Hawk In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Cooper's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+90%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cooper's Hawk has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.030.18
20260.110.030.19
20270.110.030.19
20280.110.030.19
20290.110.030.19

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrucevilleTEXAS22021
GreenvilleTEXAS22014
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12012
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11992
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12019
BeggsOKLAHOMA12017
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12021
NobleOKLAHOMA12021
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12018
TatumsOKLAHOMA12003
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12013
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
CampbelltonTEXAS12005
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11992
MuldoonTEXAS12022
Lone OakTEXAS11970
Oak GroveTEXAS11975
Peach CreekTEXAS11991
Massey LakeTEXAS12022
OakwoodTEXAS11975
KosseTEXAS12009
OsageTEXAS12014
OlaTEXAS12023
DallasTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.