BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.314
2026117.214
2027117.114
2028107.114
2029107.014

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelknapILLINOIS442024
BrownvilleILLINOIS442024
SpencerINDIANA432024
SanduskyILLINOIS402023
BoxvilleKENTUCKY391983
JoyKENTUCKY392023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS382023
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS372024
BrazilINDIANA342024
DelwoodILLINOIS332024
CelestineINDIANA302024
BremenILLINOIS282024
CumbackINDIANA282021
YorkILLINOIS272024
RoyaltonILLINOIS272024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY272024
MerrimacKENTUCKY262024
GlencoeKENTUCKY252018
PulaskiILLINOIS242024
ScottsburgINDIANA242024
VevayINDIANA232024
NewberryINDIANA232024
RomeOHIO232024
KarnakILLINOIS222024
Indian SpgsINDIANA222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.