BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171421
2026171421
2027171421
2028171421
2029181421

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA622012
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA582024
WinsideNEBRASKA542003
BadgerMINNESOTA512018
ErieMINNESOTA492017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA442011
TracyMINNESOTA432024
GryglaMINNESOTA422017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA422024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA412024
OkleeMINNESOTA392021
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA382024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA381999
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA352024
ChokioMINNESOTA332024
AppletonMINNESOTA322024
GlyndonMINNESOTA312024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA312024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA302009
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA302024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA292024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA282024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA272024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA272024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA262023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.