BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Common Raven in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1983.

25×Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.30–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.30–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.250.81
20260.540.260.82
20270.560.280.83
20280.570.290.85
20290.580.300.86

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Raven in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA182011
ClevelandMONTANA92024
OkleeMINNESOTA82021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA72024
VirgelleMONTANA52024
Sun RiverMONTANA52024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA52013
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BeltramiMINNESOTA42016
Great FallsMONTANA42024
NashNORTH-DAKOTA42016
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA42021
WylieMINNESOTA32024
GryglaMINNESOTA32017
WhitlashMONTANA32024
ShelbyMONTANA32024
WestbyMONTANA32021
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA32019
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32023
ErieMINNESOTA22017
BadgerMINNESOTA22018
Hay LakeMONTANA22022
ChinookMONTANA22024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
GlyndonMINNESOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.