BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.80
20270.120.000.78
20280.100.000.76
20290.080.000.74
20300.060.000.72

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cool CampOREGON82013
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON52025
CinderellaOREGON52025
Mt RainierWASHINGTON51993
ClearwaterOREGON42021
RaymondWASHINGTON42021
DerbyOREGON31984
Whiskey Spg.OREGON32015
HiouchiCALIFORNIA22004
ShellrockOREGON22022
Days CreekOREGON21972
DaytonOREGON21998
Hazel CampOREGON22012
Secret ValOREGON21991
Emigrant LkOREGON22000
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22024
ProspectOREGON22023
SantiamOREGON22025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON22000
KamilcheWASHINGTON22018
Bunker HillWASHINGTON21999
PackwoodWASHINGTON22025
Pe EllWASHINGTON22022
RainierWASHINGTON22018
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.