BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.70.0019
20267.60.0019
20277.40.0018
20287.20.0018
20297.10.0018

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola BeachTEXAS462009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS422024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS382024
Bayside 2TEXAS322004
PetronilaTEXAS302024
Bayside 3TEXAS282024
IndianolaTEXAS272024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA162011
BaysideTEXAS132010
ChinquapinTEXAS122024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA112019
VanderbiltTEXAS101976
MamouLOUISIANA81980
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA82024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS82016
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA71982
WinnieTEXAS62024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS62015
LafitteLOUISIANA51991
HackberryLOUISIANA52016
Forked IslandLOUISIANA52024
KatyTEXAS42024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA32024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA32011
KaplanLOUISIANA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.