BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.009.1
20264.30.009.0
20274.20.008.9
20284.10.008.8
20294.00.008.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarfaTEXAS242023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO212023
PumpvilleTEXAS172024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO162021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO112019
OzonaTEXAS92021
ShafterTEXAS81985
GageNEW-MEXICO72024
Delaware CrkTEXAS72015
CornudasTEXAS72018
GirvinTEXAS72024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62024
ValentineTEXAS51987
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO42024
SlaughterTEXAS42021
Casa PiedraTEXAS42023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS42024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32017
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32024
Black GapTEXAS32022
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32024
Salt FlatTEXAS32006
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.