BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.40.009.0
20274.30.009.0
20284.20.008.9
20294.10.008.8
20304.00.008.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoswellNEW-MEXICO192025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO162021
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO152025
Devils R CynTEXAS142025
Casa PiedraTEXAS122025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO112019
OzonaTEXAS92021
MarfaTEXAS92025
ShafterTEXAS81985
Coyanda DrawTEXAS82025
Delaware CrkTEXAS72015
CornudasTEXAS72018
Black GapTEXAS62025
GirvinTEXAS62025
MarathonTEXAS62025
ValentineTEXAS51987
PumpvilleTEXAS52025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO42024
SlaughterTEXAS42021
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32017
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32024
Salt FlatTEXAS32006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.