BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.12
20260.000.000.12
20270.000.000.12
20280.000.000.12
20290.000.000.12

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomeOHIO51977
DrakesboroKENTUCKY31991
BoxvilleKENTUCKY31971
MarshfieldMISSOURI32021
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA21967
LeveeKENTUCKY21968
McbrayerKENTUCKY21988
PlumKENTUCKY21982
CassvilleMISSOURI21983
MincyMISSOURI22018
BaronOKLAHOMA22021
Belotes BendTENNESSEE21992
BradyvilleTENNESSEE22014
HillsboroALABAMA11987
Carter GroveALABAMA12023
ZionARKANSAS12011
FultonARKANSAS12000
ComptonARKANSAS12018
AvocaARKANSAS11981
RussellARKANSAS12019
MarshallARKANSAS12012
BirdsILLINOIS11997
SanduskyILLINOIS11993
BrazilINDIANA11992
CelestineINDIANA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.