BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+143%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.7 (95% range 5.5–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.7 (95% range 5.5–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.65.49.8
20277.65.49.8
20287.75.59.8
20297.75.59.9
20307.75.59.9

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaysKANSAS402014
CoopertonOKLAHOMA382025
BeaverOKLAHOMA352018
LakeviewTEXAS292025
JamestownKANSAS272025
CovertKANSAS252025
CoatsKANSAS242025
Beloit 2KANSAS242018
WeinertTEXAS231994
WallTEXAS232022
AshlandKANSAS192021
HunterOKLAHOMA192024
PhillipsburgKANSAS182025
WilliamsTEXAS182025
ChildressTEXAS172025
ColdwaterKANSAS162022
SusankKANSAS162022
Ash ValleyKANSAS162019
DamarKANSAS162016
RandlettOKLAHOMA162025
Piester LakeNEBRASKA152025
Pear ValleyTEXAS152025
HaskellTEXAS152025
BrownleeNEBRASKA142025
MullenNEBRASKA142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.