BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+319%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.14–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.14–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.121.2
20260.650.121.2
20270.660.131.2
20280.660.131.2
20290.670.141.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarlemMONTANA142018
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA142024
SacoMONTANA122023
Wolf PointMONTANA112024
Ester LakeMONTANA82024
OswegoMONTANA62023
ClevelandMONTANA42024
ChinookMONTANA42024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA32009
HartlandMINNESOTA21990
GlasgowMONTANA22024
RedstoneMONTANA22024
GlentanaMONTANA22023
WestbyMONTANA22019
LambertMONTANA22024
SpartaNEBRASKA22021
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA21977
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA21997
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22022
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA22000
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.