BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+303%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.67 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.67 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.131.2
20270.650.131.2
20280.660.141.2
20290.660.141.2
20300.670.151.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA172025
HarlemMONTANA142018
Wolf PointMONTANA112024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
Ester LakeMONTANA82024
OswegoMONTANA62023
ClevelandMONTANA52025
ChinookMONTANA42024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA32009
HartlandMINNESOTA21990
GlasgowMONTANA22024
WestbyMONTANA22019
LambertMONTANA22024
TildenNEBRASKA22025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA21977
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA21997
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22022
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA22000
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22019
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA21991
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA21972
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.