BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Northern Rockies has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+127%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Northern Rockies: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.53–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.53–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.532.5
20261.50.532.5
20271.50.532.5
20281.50.532.5
20291.50.532.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seedskadee 2WYOMING502024
Green RiverWYOMING311984
Carter 2WYOMING222024
Crawford MtsUTAH202023
SeedskadeeWYOMING172023
BoulderWYOMING162018
EtheteWYOMING122024
WorlandWYOMING122024
PathfinderWYOMING122024
Clover CreekOREGON112024
Black Rock 2WYOMING112024
Howard Mdws.OREGON102024
Malheur Res.OREGON92023
FontenelleWYOMING92024
ClarkWYOMING92023
LysiteWYOMING92024
LogdellOREGON82022
MonumentOREGON82024
Eagle RockOREGON71979
BarnhouseOREGON72024
KalispellMONTANA62022
Cramer CreekMONTANA62015
MadrasOREGON62023
KellerWASHINGTON62005
Elk HornWYOMING62018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.