BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Common Loon in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+40%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Common Loon In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.010.14
20260.080.010.14
20270.080.010.14
20280.080.010.15
20290.080.010.15

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Loon in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
GluekMINNESOTA12018
ChokioMINNESOTA12008
GlyndonMINNESOTA12022
TenneyMINNESOTA12015
OkleeMINNESOTA12004
BeltramiMINNESOTA12007
ErieMINNESOTA12007
Great FallsMONTANA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.