BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
395Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 98% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 98% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.0023
20274.00.0022
20282.80.0021
20291.60.0019
20300.340.0018

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilliamsportMARYLAND3552025
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA3211979
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA3012001
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA1882009
NewbernVIRGINIA1801982
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA1562025
RectorPENNSYLVANIA1431977
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA1332023
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA1261981
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA1202023
EdinburgVIRGINIA1192025
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA1172025
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA1171999
StanleyVIRGINIA1132025
RydePENNSYLVANIA1122005
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA1042025
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA1032025
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA961994
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA932025
BirminghamALABAMA871995
DawsonALABAMA851998
IvanhoeVIRGINIA811968
SardisPENNSYLVANIA801974
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY772024
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA762018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.