BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
394Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 96% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 96% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.60.0023
20264.40.0022
20273.10.0021
20281.90.0020
20290.630.0018

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Common Grackle in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA3211979
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA3012001
WilliamsportMARYLAND2422024
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA1882009
NewbernVIRGINIA1801982
RectorPENNSYLVANIA1431977
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA1332023
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA1261981
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA1232024
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA1202023
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA1171999
ParadiseWEST-VIRGINIA1152023
RydePENNSYLVANIA1122005
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA1112024
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA1092024
Natural BridVIRGINIA1062024
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA1052024
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA961994
BirminghamALABAMA871995
DawsonALABAMA851998
IvanhoeVIRGINIA811968
SardisPENNSYLVANIA801974
JeromeVIRGINIA782023
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY772024
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA762018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.