BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.817
2026141017
2027141018
2028141018
2029141118

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KendallWISCONSIN3262023
MillvilleMINNESOTA2272019
FestinaIOWA1672024
CaledoniaMINNESOTA1262010
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA842019
Lake GalenaILLINOIS742021
EdwardsMINNESOTA722024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA682024
St StephenMINNESOTA612016
N AndoverWISCONSIN602024
KielWISCONSIN602022
Money CreekMINNESOTA582024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN542024
Omro 2WISCONSIN502024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN492024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN452024
EsdaileWISCONSIN412024
New LisbonWISCONSIN412024
WiotaWISCONSIN412024
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN362024
MatherWISCONSIN352023
HolwayWISCONSIN341988
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA322024
GuilfordILLINOIS302023
Brook ParkMINNESOTA242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.