BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+279%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 87 (95% range 54–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
54–12095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 87 (95% range 54–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258249115
20268351116
20278552118
20288653119
20298754120

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlneyTEXAS9602024
BonnerTEXAS6522024
CampbelltonTEXAS2002024
GainesvilleTEXAS1892024
Glen RoseTEXAS1572024
LocoOKLAHOMA1001979
HobsonTEXAS732024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS722024
MuldoonTEXAS702024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA692018
Lone OakTEXAS682022
Wills PointTEXAS652016
Oak Grove 2TEXAS642024
HearneTEXAS642024
NobleOKLAHOMA622024
DuncanOKLAHOMA582024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA552024
HenriettaTEXAS542022
Massey LakeTEXAS502024
KosseTEXAS502011
OlaTEXAS502024
BriteTEXAS462023
Blue RidgeTEXAS442024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA422024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA402009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.