BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+234%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 156% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 85 (95% range 50–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+156%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
50–12095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 156% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 85 (95% range 50–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268045115
20278146116
20288247117
20298449118
20308550120

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlneyTEXAS9602024
CampbelltonTEXAS2002024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS1402025
LocoOKLAHOMA1001979
SeldenTEXAS952025
HearneTEXAS952025
BonnerTEXAS812025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA712025
Massey LakeTEXAS692025
Lone OakTEXAS682022
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA672025
DuncanOKLAHOMA662025
Wills PointTEXAS652016
GrafordTEXAS602025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA562025
HenriettaTEXAS542022
Glen RoseTEXAS522025
TatumsOKLAHOMA502025
KosseTEXAS502011
MuldoonTEXAS492025
YoakumTEXAS492025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS482025
AlbanyTEXAS472025
NobleOKLAHOMA412025
Blue RidgeTEXAS412025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.