BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+252%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 121% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 58 (95% range 31–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+121%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 121% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 58 (95% range 31–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026562983
2027572984
2028573084
2029573085
2030583185

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA5102023
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA4202014
NashNORTH-DAKOTA3962017
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA2552018
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA1912025
OkleeMINNESOTA1782021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1612023
ErieMINNESOTA1542017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA1532025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA1472012
WylieMINNESOTA1372024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA1372025
BeltramiMINNESOTA1272025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1041983
LockhartMINNESOTA872025
AppletonMINNESOTA852025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA842025
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA802024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA802013
TitonkaIOWA782025
HarlemMONTANA772021
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA752016
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA681984
ArlingtonMINNESOTA662025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA642025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.