BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+301%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 60 (95% range 33–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 60 (95% range 33–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025573184
2026583284
2027583285
2028593385
2029603386

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA5552022
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA4202014
NashNORTH-DAKOTA3962017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA2802024
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA2552018
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA2522024
LockhartMINNESOTA2502024
OkleeMINNESOTA1782021
BeltramiMINNESOTA1652024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA1612023
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA1552024
ErieMINNESOTA1542017
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA1472012
WylieMINNESOTA1372024
TylerMINNESOTA1372024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA1192024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA1132024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA1092024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA1092024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA1041983
AppletonMINNESOTA992024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA912024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA842022
ChokioMINNESOTA802024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA802024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.