BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 593% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+593%Since 1969
111Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 593% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 5.0–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029
6.2Projected 2029 index
5.0–7.495% range
±31.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.94.77.0
20265.94.87.1
20276.04.97.2
20286.14.97.3
20296.25.07.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
PantherIOWA262024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA252024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA192024
SpartaNEBRASKA192021
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA192012
HuntleyMINNESOTA162024
MaynardMINNESOTA152015
FairmontMINNESOTA152023
OkleeMINNESOTA142021
WylieMINNESOTA142024
MadisonNEBRASKA132019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
ZearingIOWA121995
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA122024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA122024
ChokioMINNESOTA112024
CourtlandMINNESOTA102024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA102024
GarnerIOWA91993
BurchinalIOWA92024
TildenNEBRASKA92024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA92024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA92023
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.