BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 673% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+673%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 673% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 5.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 5.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.94.77.1
20276.04.87.2
20286.14.97.3
20296.25.07.4
20306.35.17.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA302025
FairmontMINNESOTA282025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA242025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA192012
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA162025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA162025
HuntleyMINNESOTA152025
MaynardMINNESOTA152015
AppletonMINNESOTA142025
OkleeMINNESOTA142021
WylieMINNESOTA142024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA142025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA142025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA132025
ZearingIOWA121995
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
BeltramiMINNESOTA112025
TracyMINNESOTA112025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA112025
GarnerIOWA91993
ChandlerMINNESOTA92025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA92025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA92023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.