BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 593% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+593%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 593% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 5.0–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 5.0–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.94.77.0
20265.94.87.1
20276.04.97.2
20286.14.97.3
20296.25.07.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA262024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA252024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA192024
SpartaNEBRASKA192021
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA192012
HuntleyMINNESOTA162024
MaynardMINNESOTA152015
FairmontMINNESOTA152023
OkleeMINNESOTA142021
WylieMINNESOTA142024
MadisonNEBRASKA132019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
ZearingIOWA121995
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA122024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA122024
ChokioMINNESOTA112024
CourtlandMINNESOTA102024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA102024
GarnerIOWA91993
BurchinalIOWA92024
TildenNEBRASKA92024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA92024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA92023
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.