BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 295% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±378.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+295%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±378.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 295% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±378.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.0029
20265.90.0029
20275.90.0029
20285.90.0029
20295.90.0029

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SebastianFLORIDA731992
WebbFLORIDA322006
Winter GardnFLORIDA272019
ScottsmoorFLORIDA152024
MicanopyFLORIDA111991
Dale MabryFLORIDA101988
Polk CityFLORIDA102024
MabelFLORIDA82011
IndiantownFLORIDA82017
AripekaFLORIDA82022
DeanvilleFLORIDA72016
Citrus ParkFLORIDA72024
AlturasFLORIDA61986
FlemingtonFLORIDA61999
BelmoreFLORIDA52024
Weaver StnFLORIDA52019
Mt. OliveFLORIDA52024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA51989
RomeoFLORIDA42017
San AntonioFLORIDA42024
ChildsFLORIDA42022
KissimmeeFLORIDA42021
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42009
GardnerFLORIDA41999
Punta GordaFLORIDA42014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.