BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 177% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±391.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+177%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±391.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 177% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±391.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.60.0028
20275.60.0028
20285.60.0028
20295.60.0028
20305.60.0028

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SebastianFLORIDA731992
WebbFLORIDA322006
Winter GardnFLORIDA272019
AripekaFLORIDA182025
Polk CityFLORIDA122025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA122025
MicanopyFLORIDA111991
Dale MabryFLORIDA101988
MabelFLORIDA82011
IndiantownFLORIDA82017
ScottsmoorFLORIDA72025
DeanvilleFLORIDA72016
Ridge HarborFLORIDA72025
AlturasFLORIDA61986
FlemingtonFLORIDA61999
BelmoreFLORIDA52024
Weaver StnFLORIDA52019
Babcock RnchFLORIDA51989
ChildsFLORIDA42022
KissimmeeFLORIDA42021
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42009
GardnerFLORIDA41999
Punta GordaFLORIDA42014
San AntonioFLORIDA32025
Boca RatonFLORIDA31994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.