BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Great Basin has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.94–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.94–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.902.6
20271.70.912.6
20281.70.922.6
20291.80.932.6
20301.80.942.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewhalemWASHINGTON1032025
KendallWASHINGTON342025
Blacks CreekIDAHO311982
TwispWASHINGTON282024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA242010
LeavenworthWASHINGTON222024
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON212021
Mud LakeIDAHO202021
YakimaWASHINGTON172025
DorrisCALIFORNIA152012
Magic MtnIDAHO142025
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON122019
Modoc PointOREGON112018
Mt HoodOREGON112025
ImnahaOREGON92025
Modoc Point 2OREGON92025
Hardware RanchUTAH92023
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON92025
Wizard FallsOREGON82016
GlacierWASHINGTON82024
Index 2WASHINGTON82023
Trout CreekOREGON71997
LikelyCALIFORNIA62025
PicaboIDAHO62015
Chimney Res.NEVADA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.