BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.82.98.6
20265.82.98.6
20275.83.08.6
20285.83.08.7
20295.83.08.7

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaytonOREGON602024
DerbyOREGON411993
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON412024
NeiltonWASHINGTON341975
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON342024
SalemOREGON332024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON332017
Port AngelesWASHINGTON312024
RaymondWASHINGTON282021
ScappooseOREGON272023
SvensenOREGON261992
CarnationWASHINGTON262024
MolallaOREGON252024
CougarWASHINGTON252023
South ElmaWASHINGTON252024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA192024
AdairOREGON192024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON172024
SitkaALASKA162012
IssaquahWASHINGTON131987
RainierWASHINGTON132019
Mendota 3WASHINGTON132024
EverettWASHINGTON122024
Mendota 2WASHINGTON122000
Raymond 2WASHINGTON122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.