BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 962% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+962%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 962% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 152% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+152%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 152% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.45.0
20263.31.45.1
20273.31.55.1
20283.41.55.2
20293.41.65.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Levee 2KENTUCKY322019
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY292021
ReedsMISSOURI282019
SwaimALABAMA252021
YorkILLINOIS212023
Indian SpgsINDIANA172024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY162003
Bays ForkKENTUCKY152019
LincolnMISSOURI152022
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY142023
HillsboroALABAMA121978
BirdsILLINOIS112022
CelestineINDIANA112024
ZionARKANSAS92021
PimentoINDIANA92022
BoxvilleKENTUCKY91983
PleasurevillKENTUCKY92024
PalaceMISSOURI82016
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA72007
Cave In RockILLINOIS72024
BelmontINDIANA72024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY72003
GlencoeKENTUCKY72018
SpencerINDIANA62024
ScottsburgINDIANA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.