BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 643% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+643%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
258Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 643% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.36.4
20264.93.46.5
20275.03.56.6
20285.13.56.7
20295.23.66.7

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WayneILLINOIS342024
McfallMISSOURI342024
LacledeMISSOURI302023
KentonOHIO302013
River FallsWISCONSIN272024
CaledoniaILLINOIS262024
UnionILLINOIS262017
BarringtonILLINOIS242011
MarshallILLINOIS222023
FultonOHIO202024
HarveysburgOHIO191996
ItascaILLINOIS172024
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS142021
Camp PointILLINOIS132023
MiddletownINDIANA132024
DunlapOHIO131988
New LenoxILLINOIS122019
AldenILLINOIS112023
FriendswoodINDIANA112024
Red RockIOWA112024
RaymondWISCONSIN112024
BelleviewILLINOIS102024
MartinsvilleILLINOIS102021
St MorganILLINOIS92022
BeaucoupILLINOIS92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.