BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-54%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cave Swallow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Cave Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 441% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±345.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+441%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±345.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 441% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±345.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.009.1
20264.30.009.1
20274.40.009.1
20284.40.009.1
20294.40.009.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DecaturTEXAS702019
Lone OakTEXAS532019
AlbanyTEXAS352015
HobsonTEXAS342023
Three RiversTEXAS332022
BriteTEXAS302024
Glen RoseTEXAS222023
Thornton 2TEXAS192010
YoakumTEXAS152017
SchroederTEXAS121996
CreedmoreTEXAS102014
GauseTEXAS91997
MuldoonTEXAS62017
Whit Mtn.TEXAS62019
CayugaTEXAS52023
FanninTEXAS52022
CarlosTEXAS52016
HearneTEXAS42021
GrafordTEXAS32017
BurtonTEXAS32018
CampbelltonTEXAS22024
LockhartTEXAS22022
OsageTEXAS22021
WeatherfordTEXAS22014
OlneyTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.