BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-54%Since 1986
35Routes In Region
37Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cave Swallow has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 441% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±345.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+441%Change by 2029
4.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–9.195% range
±345.4%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.30.009.1
20264.30.009.1
20274.40.009.1
20284.40.009.1
20294.40.009.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
DecaturTEXAS702019
Lone OakTEXAS532019
AlbanyTEXAS352015
HobsonTEXAS342023
Three RiversTEXAS332022
BriteTEXAS302024
Glen RoseTEXAS222023
Thornton 2TEXAS192010
YoakumTEXAS152017
SchroederTEXAS121996
CreedmoreTEXAS102014
GauseTEXAS91997
MuldoonTEXAS62017
Whit Mtn.TEXAS62019
CayugaTEXAS52023
FanninTEXAS52022
CarlosTEXAS52016
HearneTEXAS42021
GrafordTEXAS32017
BurtonTEXAS32018
CampbelltonTEXAS22024
LockhartTEXAS22022
OsageTEXAS22021
WeatherfordTEXAS22014
OlneyTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.