BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Carolina Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+175%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
229Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.44.2
20272.81.44.2
20282.91.54.3
20292.91.54.3
20303.01.64.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS242025
Ash RidgeOHIO242021
FriendswoodINDIANA232024
MoselleMISSOURI202025
Witts StationINDIANA192025
EldredILLINOIS182025
MelroseKANSAS172023
DarrtownOHIO172021
BrookvilleINDIANA162025
EnonOHIO162025
House SpringsMISSOURI152025
AthensILLINOIS142025
WallaceINDIANA142024
ReeceKANSAS142025
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA142022
Mt VernonILLINOIS132025
West ElktonOHIO132012
RockinghamMISSOURI122025
St MorganILLINOIS112022
FilleyMISSOURI112025
DanvilleMISSOURI112025
MadisonMISSOURI112024
New PointMISSOURI112025
Harveysburg 2OHIO112025
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.