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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

California Scrub-Jay in Oregon has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Scrub-Jay Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Scrub-Jay has risen sharply in Oregon: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.53.4
20272.51.53.4
20282.51.53.4
20292.51.63.4
20302.51.63.4

California Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canby2720251993
Salem2420251993
Emigrant Lk2320011972
Derby1919931968
Adair1920251971
Emigrant Lake 21820252002
Green1820251994
Umpqua1520251969
Tualatin1420251968
Mcminnville1320251994
Elkton1220251973
Scappoose1120251995
Dayton1020251973
Modoc Point820181971
Garfield820251973
Mt Hood820251976
Deschutes720252004
Scio720251971
Barnes Val619721972
Modoc Point 2520252024
Ruch520251992
Santiam420251994
Days Creek420251970
Secret Val420251975
Selma420251994

California Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.