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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Washington has surged: up 384% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+384%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Scrub-Jay Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Scrub-Jay has surged in Washington: up 384% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

California Scrub-Jay Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Washington is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.56–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Washington is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.56–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.511.2
20260.850.521.2
20270.860.531.2
20280.880.551.2
20290.890.561.2

California Scrub-Jay Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Elma1820241999
Pe Ell1520231995
Snowden1520241982
Camas920181977
Bunker Hill620241996
Raymond620212004
Mendota 3520242005
Ilwaco420222003
Kamilche220222018
Rainier220192005
Vashon Is.120232021
Mcchord120152001
Yakima120242024
Raymond 2120242022

California Scrub-Jay Population Trend in Other States

californianevadaoregon

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.