BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Quail Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

California Quail in Washington has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+319%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Quail Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has surged in Washington: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

California Quail Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Washington is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Washington is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.811
20267.02.911
20277.13.011
20287.23.111
20297.33.211

California Quail Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording California Quail in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesa5920081994
Malden3820241998
Ellensburg3120241981
Nighthawk2720241992
Wapato2620221971
Odessa2220241993
Deer Park2020121994
Columbia Nwr1920221992
Brewster1820151977
Moses Lake1820221988
Quincy1720241987
Pomona1719991998
Scootney Reservoir1720242009
Tonasket1620181982
Harwood1519971993
Lake Chelan1520241988
Othello1419911981
Ewan 21220242023
Chewelah1120211980
Port Angeles1020231970
Laurier1020222002
Asotin920241971
Potholes920231996
Selah820232000
Reardan720241968

California Quail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.