BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Quail Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

California Quail in Utah has surged: up 832% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+832%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable California Quail Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Quail has surged in Utah: up 832% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

California Quail Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Utah is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Quail in Utah is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.010.34
20260.180.020.34
20270.180.020.34
20280.190.030.35
20290.200.030.36

California Quail Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording California Quail in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jensen1220242015
Delta420242017
Castle Dale320011996
Oak City320242006
Shivwitz220101998
Beaver220241997
Wellington 3120192019
Promontory119871987
Fairfield120242009
Goshen120051993
Goose Creek Mtn.119981998
Hanna120142010

California Quail Population Trend in Other States

californiaidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.