BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Thrasher has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Thrasher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.3
20270.550.001.3
20280.560.001.3
20290.560.001.3
20300.560.001.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vinton 2LOUISIANA62025
JuniorLOUISIANA51988
Moon LakeTEXAS42010
RichardLOUISIANA32023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA32018
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21975
EstherLOUISIANA22025
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22014
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA22011
KatyTEXAS21985
LafitteLOUISIANA11990
CreoleLOUISIANA11974
MamouLOUISIANA11982
HackberryLOUISIANA12012
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
MauriceLOUISIANA12023
KaplanLOUISIANA12022
Grand IsleLOUISIANA12015
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12025
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12009
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12017
VanderbiltTEXAS11976
WinnieTEXAS12024
StowellTEXAS11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.