BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Thrasher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.0
20261.40.002.9
20271.30.002.9
20281.30.002.9
20291.20.002.8

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedlandsFLORIDA182024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA102021
OcalaFLORIDA82024
MabelFLORIDA72011
AlturasFLORIDA71986
CorbettFLORIDA62022
Dale MabryFLORIDA51987
Myakka HeadFLORIDA52011
GardnerFLORIDA51999
Mt. OliveFLORIDA52024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA42024
NobletonFLORIDA42024
Vero BeachFLORIDA42001
MicanopyFLORIDA31991
RomeoFLORIDA32024
San AntonioFLORIDA32024
BelmoreFLORIDA32023
BrowardFLORIDA31973
Pennywash CrFLORIDA32021
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
Polk CityFLORIDA22024
Boca RatonFLORIDA21994
KissimmeeFLORIDA22021
Pleasant GrFLORIDA22008
ShawanoFLORIDA21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.