BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Thrasher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Brown Thrasher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.002.9
20271.30.002.9
20281.30.002.9
20291.20.002.8
20301.20.002.8

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Brown Thrasher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedlandsFLORIDA182024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA102021
OcalaFLORIDA92025
Island GroveFLORIDA82025
MabelFLORIDA72011
AlturasFLORIDA71986
San AntonioFLORIDA62025
CorbettFLORIDA62022
Dale MabryFLORIDA51987
Myakka HeadFLORIDA52011
GardnerFLORIDA51999
CitrusFLORIDA52025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA42025
NobletonFLORIDA42024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA42025
Vero BeachFLORIDA42001
MicanopyFLORIDA31991
BelmoreFLORIDA32023
BrowardFLORIDA31973
Pennywash CrFLORIDA32021
St LucieFLORIDA32025
Mabel 2FLORIDA32019
Polk CityFLORIDA22024
Boca RatonFLORIDA21994
Pleasant GrFLORIDA22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.