BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161219
2026161219
2027161219
2028161219
2029161219

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EugeneMISSOURI562024
NewberryINDIANA552024
SyracuseMISSOURI532024
West PlainsMISSOURI532024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY492019
ColcordOKLAHOMA482022
Cave In RockILLINOIS412024
Osage BeachMISSOURI412024
Rueter 2MISSOURI412024
CelestineINDIANA382024
PulaskiILLINOIS352024
YorkILLINOIS352024
BradyvilleTENNESSEE342021
DelwoodILLINOIS332024
JoyKENTUCKY322023
WhitewaterMISSOURI322024
AvocaARKANSAS312024
MillionKENTUCKY311986
Clementine 2MISSOURI312007
PalaceMISSOURI312024
Peace ValleyMISSOURI302024
CentertonARKANSAS292024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS292023
SanduskyILLINOIS292023
EvansvilleINDIANA282022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.